The influence of poll results on election outcomes (Q1088567)

Using a simple model of voting behaviour in a two party system it is shown that successive polls can help voters to make rational decisions. The poll institutes have no opportunity to manipulate the election outcome in any preferred direction, provided they present the results correctly to the public. The model is extended to a system of three or more parties; the main results do not change. However, institutional regulations can open the opportunity for manipulations. But if there is competition between institutes there are difficulties which make successful manipulations unlikely.