A note on chain-binomial models of epidemic spread: What is wrong with the Reed-Frost formulation? (Q1092836)

Derivations of the Reed-Frost model are analyzed in terms of the assumptions about the probabilistic process used and in terms of internal consistency. Internally consistent derivations can be exhibited but require assumptions about the basic probabilistic process that are clearly unreasonable. A properly posed, more general model is derivable through the use of \textit{P. D. En'ko}'s model (1889) and the generating function for the number of contacts per person [see \textit{K. Dietz} and \textit{D. Schenzle}, A celebration of statistics, The ISI Centen. Vol. 167- 204 (1985; Zbl 0586.92017)].