Was Bayes a Bayesian? (Q1096599)

The paper analyzes \textit{Th. Bayes}' essay [Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 53, 370--418 (1763; Zbl 1250.60007)], together with the additions by Richard Price, in relation to (1) historical influences and (2) the Bayesianism of the 20th century. As regards (1), historical evidence is presented linking Price with Hume, and it is argued that Price's additions are likely to have been written as an attempt to solve Hume's problem of induction. As regards (2), it is shown that Bayes' billiard table example is so constructed as to avoid the objections to Bayesianism made, in our own time, by R. A. Fisher and J. Neyman. Bayes did, however, introduce controversial Bayesian assumptions in his scholium, and was therefore a Bayesian - though a cautious Bayesian.