Microscopic and macroscopic aspects of epidemics (Q1184817)

This paper is concerned with spatial epidemics in which the population consists of clusters of fixed size \(g\). The authors begin by considering some stochastic results, and outline conditions under which the macroscopic system approaches a deterministic one. This leads to a multi- group Kermack-McKendrick model which the authors proceed to analyze. They show that equilibrium is reached, and demonstrate that for medium-sized epidemics the initial configuration of infectives affects the final state. For example, a sparse initial configuration of infectives causes a more severe epidemic than a clustered one. Some useful graphs are provided to illustrate the final proportions of susceptibles left in the populations.