Buffon, Price, and Laplace: Scientific attribution in the 18th century (Q1203003)

The history of the rule of succession of \textit{Laplace} (1812) is being traced back to \textit{David Hume}'s Treatise of 1739. \textit{Laplace} criticized the solution, which \textit{G.-L. L. Buffon} gave in his Essai d'arithmétique morale (1777). The famous work of \textit{Th. Bayes} (1764), or better the covering letter to this paper by \textit{Richard Price} is the source of \textit{Buffon}'s answer. \textit{J. W. F. Herschel} (1857) was one of the few to understand the distinction involved. \textit{M.-J.-A.-N. Marquis de Condorcet} attempted the first mathematical analysis of the problem, but used a formula only appropriate to \textit{Laplace}'s example. His attempt led to further confusions. \textit{Laplace} gave a correct analysis and he drew the proper conclusions, but he failed to mention his predecessors. 24 references.