Dynamic reliability analysis method of degraded mechanical components based on process probability density function of stress (Q1717683)

Summary: It is necessary to develop dynamic reliability models when considering strength degradation of mechanical components. Instant probability density function (IPDF) of stress and process probability density function (PPDF) of stress, which are obtained via different statistical methods, are defined, respectively. In practical engineering, the probability density function (PDF) for the usage of mechanical components is mostly PPDF, such as the PDF acquired via the rain flow counting method. For the convenience of application, IPDF is always approximated by PPDF when using the existing dynamic reliability models. However, it may cause errors in the reliability calculation due to the approximation of IPDF by PPDF. Therefore, dynamic reliability models directly based on PPDF of stress are developed in this paper. Furthermore, the proposed models can be used for reliability assessment in the case of small amount of stress process samples by employing the fuzzy set theory. In addition, the mechanical components in solar array of satellites are chosen as representative examples to illustrate the proposed models. The results show that errors are caused because of the approximation of IPDF by PPDF and the proposed models are accurate in the reliability computation.