Technological and social factors in long term fluctuations. Proceedings of an international workshop held in Siena, Italy, December 16-18, 1986 (Q1823119)

[The articles of this volume will not be indexed individually.] The general idea of the workshop was that long-term tendencies of economic growth are characterized by specific fluctuations and cycles rather than by monotone smooth functions. Based on this idea two main approaches to the investigation of the long-term fluctuations have been proposed: ``technological'' and ``social'' ones. From the ``technological'' or (neo-Schumpeterian) point-of-view long-term cycles are a result of introduction of major innovations. A common feature of the ``social'' approach is the belief that the cycles are determined by changes in the institutional structure of the society rather than by technical progress. It is beyond discussion that systems research of the fluctuations is necessary. One has to take into account, however, that long-term fluctuation models of economic growth (like all mathematical models) are very simplified descriptions of the real economic processes, and it would not be easy to draw a border line between systems research as a useful science and systems research as an art.