A theoretical model of listeriosis driven by cross contamination of ready-to-eat food products (Q1989047)

Summary: Cross contamination that results in food-borne disease outbreaks remains a major problem in processed foods globally. In this paper, a mathematical model that takes into consideration cross contamination of \textit{Listeria monocytogenes} from a food processing plant environment is formulated using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model has three equilibria: the disease-free equilibrium, Listeria-free equilibrium, and endemic equilibrium points. A contamination threshold \((\mathcal{R}_{wf})\) is determined. Analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally stable for \(\mathcal{R}_{w f}<1\) while the Listeria-free and endemic equilibria are locally stable for \(\mathcal{R}_{w f}>1\). The time-dependent sensitivity analysis is performed using Latin hypercube sampling to determine model input parameters that significantly affect the severity of the listeriosis. Numerical simulations are carried out, and the results are discussed. The results show that a reduction in the number of contaminated workers and removal of contaminated food products are essential in eliminating the disease in the human population and vice versa. The results have significant public health implications in the management and containment of any listeriosis disease outbreak.