Conservation effort and assessment of population size in fluctuating environments (Q2177339)

This article discusses optimal strategies for conserving endangered populations. In particular, the simplest possible situation is analyzed, namely optimization in one year. The authors emphasize the role of partial information about the initial population size. The case is considered in which the decision-maker has an available prompt that does not fully correlate with the original population. The optimal level of effort should vary depending on the signal, but their ratio depends on the accuracy of the information. An assessment exercise is introduced that can improve the accuracy of the prompt. The article takes into account the uncertainty of population size and survival, but assumes that there is accurate information on other parameters. The authors examined the optimal level of conservation efforts to prevent extinction in a changing environment, and determined the optimal level of estimation of the initial population size. The level of conservation efforts must be determined before environmental fluctuations are known. Thus, optimal conservation efforts are considered when the current population size is known accurately, or is limited by the signal. Optimal efforts to estimate population size increase with increasing population size, with an average decrease in the logarithmic population size and variance in its original size.