Risk analysis in a production system using fuzzy cognitive map (Q2204305)

Summary: In this paper, fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) has been used in a production system to analyse the risk in the system. Fuzzy cognitive map is an essential tool in any decision making problem. In any production system risk in profit loss is a usual factor. So in this paper, risk factor has been considered as a concept in constructing a FCM. Two different models have been constructed to analyse the risk in the system. Firstly, it has been considered that the weights defined by any decision maker in constructing the FCM are crisp values in \([-1, 1]\) and secondly, it has been considered that the weights are linguistic in nature. These linguistic values are taken as triangular fuzzy numbers. A numerical example has been illustrated on this regard to find the risk in the both models and a sensitivity analysis has been made taking different weights to the causal relationship between any two concepts.