The catastrophe of electric vehicle sales (Q2413134)

Summary: Electric vehicles have undergone a recent faddy trend in the United States and Europe, and several recent publications trumpet the continued rise of electric vehicles citing steadily-climbing monthly vehicle sales. The broad purpose of this study is to examine this optimism with some degree of mathematical rigor. Specifically, the methodology will use \textit{catastrophe} theory to explore the possibility of a sudden, seemingly-unexplainable crash in vehicle sales. The study begins by defining optimal system equations that well-model the available sales data. Next, these optimal models are used to investigate the potential response to a \textit{slow dynamic} acting on the relatively faster dynamic of the optimal system equations. Catastrophe theory indicates a potential sudden crash in sales when a slow dynamic is at-work. It is noteworthy that the prediction can be made even while sales are increasing.