The hybridisation of conflict: a prospect theoretic analysis (Q2669125)

This article proposes a prospect theoretic approach for modeling hybrid threats and deterrence states responses to them. The different types of hybrid threats, such as disinformation campaigns, cyber-attacks, supporting proxy-forces and destabilizing the opponent by means of economic coercion are treated jointly. The deterrence game is limited to two opponents and two stages. The incorporation of prospect theory insights produces indications that the defender will assign a higher weight and a higher subjective value to high impact and low probability events, resulting in conventional deterrence remaining the top priority. An analysis of the global distribution of the United States' available budgetary means across its defense capabilities is formulated.