Econometric modeling of Ukrainian economy (Q2739842)

A vector-valued autoregressive model is proposed for the description of macroeconomic variables as GDP, consumption, investment, nominal wages, consumption price index, exports, imports, M0. The model contains 39 independent unknown coefficients. It is fitted to the quarterly data of Ukrainian economic 1994-1997 which contains 15 observations (time-points). NEWLINENEWLINENEWLINENaturally, the presented plots of results demonstrate overfitting of the model. It is noted in the paper that the model failed to predict GDP. Singularly enough, the authors explain this saying that the statistical data they have used were untrue!