Development pattern and prediction error for the stochastic Bornhuetter-Ferguson claims reserving method (Q2890516)

From authors' abstract: ``We investigate the question how the development pattern in the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method should be estimated and derive the corresponding conditional mean square error of prediction (MSEP) of the ultimate claim prediction. [...] First we consider distributional models and derive estimators (maximum likelihood) for the development pattern taking all relevant information into account. Morevover, we suggest new estimators of the correlation matrix of these estimators and new estimators of the conditional MSEP. [\dots] The methodology is illustrated at two numerical examples.''