Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

DOI10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007OpenAlexW2891940404WikidataQ129183351 ScholiaQ129183351MaRDI QIDQ1727897

Peter W. F. Smith, Jonathan J. Forster, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Jakub Bijak

Publication date: 21 February 2019

Published in: Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007

zbMATH Keywords

forecastingBayesian inferencestatistical modellingBrexitUnited Kingdomopinion polls

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics (62-08) Bayesian inference (62F15)

Uses Software

• R
• BUGS
• JAGS

Cites Work

• Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. (with comments and a rejoinder).
• Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit
• Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States
• Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences
• Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (Comment on article by Browne and Draper)

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