Uncertainty and error in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters inferred from population-level epidemic models

DOI10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111337zbMath1504.92164OpenAlexW4308289195MaRDI QIDQ2109314

Alejandra D. Herrera-Reyes, Kirsty J. Bolton, Leah R. Band, Gary R. Mirams, Markus R. Owen, Dominic G. Whittaker, Maurice H. W. Hendrix, Simon P. Preston

Publication date: 20 December 2022

Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111337

zbMATH Keywords

model selectionparameter inferenceepidemic modellinguncertainty quantificationgeneration timeSARS-CoV-2non-pharmaceutical interventions

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Uses Software

• CMA-ES

Cites Work

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• An exact and implementable computation of the final outbreak size distribution under Erlang distributed infectious period
• Generalizations of the `linear chain trick': incorporating more flexible dwell time distributions into mean field ODE models
• Small-sample estimation of negative binomial dispersion, with applications to SAGE data
• An adaptive Metropolis algorithm

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