Accounting for smoking in forecasting mortality and life expectancy

DOI10.1214/20-AOAS1381zbMath1475.62262arXiv1910.12168MaRDI QIDQ2233187

Yi-Cheng Li, Adrian E. Raftery

Publication date: 14 October 2021

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.12168

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian hierarchical modellife expectancyprobabilistic projectionsmoking attributable fraction

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Reliability and life testing (62N05) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Uses Software

• forecast
• Demography
• RStan
• bayesDem
• bayesPop
• bayesLife
• bayesTFR
• rstan
• MortCast

Cites Work

• Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality
• A Bayesian forecasting model: predicting U.S. male mortality
• Bayesian population projections for the united nations
• Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach
• Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both genders jointly in over 60 countries
• Mortality and life expectancy forecasting for a group of populations in developed countries: a multilevel functional data method
• A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation

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