A Bayesian surrogate model for rapid time series analysis and application to exoplanet observations

DOI10.1214/BA/1339616473zbMath1330.62448arXiv1107.4047OpenAlexW2126333823MaRDI QIDQ2634104

Althea V. Moorhead, Dimitri Veras, Eric B. Ford

Publication date: 8 February 2016

Published in: Bayesian Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We present a Bayesian surrogate model for the analysis of periodic or quasi-periodic time series data. We describe a computationally efficient implementation that enables Bayesian model comparison. We apply this model to simulated and real exoplanet observations. We discuss the results and demonstrate some of the challenges for applying our surrogate model to realistic exoplanet data sets. In particular, we find that analyses of real world data should pay careful attention to the effects of uneven spacing of observations and the choice of prior for the "jitter" parameter.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1107.4047

zbMATH Keywords

model selection numerical methods periodogram model comparison exoplanets radial velocities transit timing variations

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) General questions in astronomy and astrophysics (85A04)

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