Turning the heat on financial decisions: examining the role temperature plays in the incidence of bias in a time-limited financial market

DOI10.1016/j.ejor.2021.09.048zbMath1495.91111OpenAlexW3207912094MaRDI QIDQ2670551

Johnnie E. V. Johnson, L. F. Costa Sperb, Ming-Chien Sung, Tiejun Ma

Publication date: 11 March 2022

Published in: European Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.09.048

zbMATH Keywords

forecastingrisk takingbetting marketdecision biasweather effect

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics (62P05) Financial markets (91G15)

Cites Work

• Estimating risk preferences of bettors with different bet sizes
• A new methodology for generating and combining statistical forecasting models to enhance competitive event prediction
• It takes all sorts: a heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing
• Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements
• To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from virtual globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market
• Economic Interpretation of Probabilities Estimated by Maximum Likelihood or Score
• Betting and Equilibrium
• Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

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