Do `big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour?

DOI10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.002zbMath1346.91038OpenAlexW1666631020MaRDI QIDQ321050

Robert Fildes, Fotios Petropoulos, Paul Goodwin

Publication date: 7 October 2016

Published in: European Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.002

zbMATH Keywords

decision support systemsforecastingbehavioural analyticsjudgment

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10) Decision theory (91B06) Economic time series analysis (91B84) Applications of game theory (91A80) Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50) Probabilistic games; gambling (91A60) Experimental studies (91A90)

Related Items (7)

Editorial: Behavioural operational research: returning to the roots of the OR profession ⋮ Supply chain forecasting: theory, practice, their gap and the future ⋮ Evaluating human behaviour in response to AI recommendations for judgemental forecasting ⋮ Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators ⋮ Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation ⋮ What causes post-decision disappointment? Estimating the contributions of systematic and selection biases ⋮ Forecast adjustments during post-promotional periods

Cites Work

• Unnamed Item
• Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty
• A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes
• On the importance of behavioral operational research: the case of understanding and communicating about dynamic systems
• `Horses for courses' in demand forecasting
• Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?

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