Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

From MaRDI portal
Publication:5484944

DOI10.1002/0470033312zbMath1269.62009OpenAlexW2065637266MaRDI QIDQ5484944

J. Richard Eiser, Paul H. Garthwaite, Anthony O'Hagan, David J. Jenkinson, Tim Rakow, Jeremy E. Oakley, A. Daneshkhah, Caitlin E. Buck

Publication date: 23 August 2006

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/0470033312



Related Items

Characterizing Dirichlet Priors, Expert knowledge elicitation using item response theory, Quantifying conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks: Bayesian regression for scenario-based encoding of elicited expert assessments on feral pig habitat, A numerically stable algorithm for integrating Bayesian models using Markov melding, Probabilistic aggregation of uncertain geological resources, Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities, An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model, Specification of informative prior distributions for multinomial models using vine copulas, Network routing for insurgency: An adversarial risk analysis framework, Regularized Aggregation of One-Off Probability Predictions, Multithreat multisite protection: a security case study, Nonstandard conditionally specified models for nonignorable missing data, Subjective elicitation of hyperparameters of a conjugate Dirichlet prior and the corresponding Bayes analysis, The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets, A decision support system for liability in civil litigation: a case study from an insurance company, Graphical prior elicitation in univariate models, A Bayesian way of monitoring the linear profiles using CUSUM control charts, Optimal design of priors constrained by external predictors, Eliciting Dirichlet and Connor-Mosimann prior distributions for multinomial models, Supplier quality improvement: the value of information under uncertainty, Probabilistic fuzzy logic modeling: quantifying uncertainty of mineral prospectivity models using Monte Carlo simulations, Iterative importance sampling with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in robust Bayesian analysis, Adaptive prior weighting in generalized regression, Defense and security planning under resource uncertainty and multi‐period commitments, Theory and methods for random differential equations: a survey, Calibrated Bayes factors under flexible priors, Power Laws Distributions in Objective Priors, The phoropter method: a stochastic graphical procedure for prior elicitation in univariate data models, Prioritizing covariates in the planning of future studies in the meta-analytic framework, Bayesian restricted likelihood methods: conditioning on insufficient statistics in Bayesian regression (with discussion), Informative priors for the consensus ranking in the Bayesian Mallows model, Model-based preference quantification, Bayesian dynamic borrowing of historical information with applications to the analysis of large-scale assessments, Knowledge elicitation via sequential probabilistic inference for high-dimensional prediction, Does probability weighting matter in probability elicitation?, A Bayesian approach to aggregate experts' initial information, Neutral noninformative and informative conjugate beta and gamma prior distributions, A two-step Bayesian approach for propensity score analysis: simulations and case study, On estimating the distribution of data envelopment analysis efficiency scores: an application to nursing homes’ care planning process, Predicting rainy seasons: quantifying the beliefs of prophets, Data envelopment analysis in the presence of measurement error: case study from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators®(NDNQI®), Eliciting vague but proper maximal entropy priors in Bayesian experiments, Generalized isotonic conditional random fields, Prior distribution elicitation for generalized linear and piecewise-linear models, Multifidelity probability estimation via fusion of estimators, Bayesian estimation for a parametric Markov renewal model applied to seismic data, Functional ANOVA with Multiple Distributions: Implications for the Sensitivity Analysis of Computer Experiments, The transformed inverse Gaussian process as an age- and state-dependent degradation model, Probabilistic optimization of engineering system with prescribed target design in a reduced parameter space, Functional Uniform Priors for Nonlinear Modeling, The general theory of decisions, Eliciting Dirichlet and Gaussian copula prior distributions for multinomial models, Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: a systematic literature review and future research directions, Easy and optimal queries to reduce set uncertainty, Nuclear emergency decision support: a behavioural OR perspective, Forecast aggregation via recalibration, Joining and splitting models with Markov melding, Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: a nonparametric Bayesian approach, Optimizing airline passenger prescreening systems with Bayesian decision models, On the Robustness of Bayesian Modelling of Location and Scale Structures Using Heavy-Tailed Distributions, ON THE AGGREGATION OF EXPERTS' INFORMATION IN BONUS–MALUS SYSTEMS, Unnamed Item, Exact posterior computation for the binomial-Kumaraswamy model, Unnamed Item, Book review of: R. Levy and R. J. Mislevy, Bayesian psychometric modeling, Inferring probability densities from expert opinion, Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities, Choosing a Strictly Proper Scoring Rule, A nearly optimal auction for an uninformed seller, Modeling uncertainty of expert elicitation for use in risk-based optimization, Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems, Reliability modelling and assessment of a heterogeneously repaired system with partially relevant recurrence data, Eliciting prior distributions for extra parameters in some generalized linear models, Scoring in context, Calibrating expert assessments using hierarchical Gaussian process models, A Bayesian hierarchical model for criminal investigations, Automated Preference Elicitation for Decision Making, An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Batch Acceptance Problems, Approximate large-scale Bayesian spatial modeling with application to quantitative magnetic resonance imaging, Predicting competitions by combining conditional logistic regression and subjective Bayes: an Academy Awards case study, Heterogeneous data analysis using a mixture of Laplace models with conjugate priors, Introduction and overview of structured expert judgement, Bayesian modelling of dependence between experts: some comparisons with Cooke's classical model, Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling, Characteristics of a process for subjective probability elicitation, Structured expert judgement issues in a supply chain cyber risk management system, Correlated defaults, temporal correlation, expert information and predictability of default rates, Expert Knowledge Elicitation: Subjective but Scientific, Inference and Decision Making for 21st-Century Drug Development and Approval, Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review, Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data