Forecasting national recessions of the United States with state-level climate risks: evidence from model averaging in Markov-switching models

DOI10.1016/J.ECONLET.2023.111121zbMath1521.91278OpenAlexW4365518203MaRDI QIDQ6047314

Christina Christou, Rangan Gupta, Oguzhan Cepni

Publication date: 12 September 2023

Published in: Economics Letters (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111121

zbMATH Keywords

business fluctuations and cyclesMarkov-switching modelsmodel averagingclimate risks

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Economic growth models (91B62) Environmental economics (natural resource models, harvesting, pollution, etc.) (91B76) Statistical methods; economic indices and measures (91B82)

Cites Work

• Temperature shocks and welfare costs
• Model averaging in Markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional data
• The effects of climate risks on economic activity in a panel of US states: the role of uncertainty
• Persistence of state-level uncertainty of the United States: the role of climate risks
• Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability
• The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles

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