Structural break analysis in high-dimensional covariance structure

Publication date: 1 March 2018

Abstract: We consider detection and localization of an abrupt break in the covariance structure of high-dimensional random data. The paper proposes a novel testing procedure for this problem. Due to its nature, the approach requires a properly chosen critical level. In this regard we propose a purely data-driven calibration scheme. The approach can be straightforwardly employed in online setting and is essentially multiscale allowing for a trade-off between sensitivity and change-point localization (in online setting, the delay of detection). The description of the algorithm is followed by a formal theoretical study justifying the proposed calibration scheme under mild assumption and providing guaranties for break detection. All the theoretical results are obtained in a high-dimensional setting (dimensionality $p >> n$). The results are supported by a simulation study inspired by real-world financial data.

Has companion code repository: https://github.com/akopich/covcp

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Hypothesis testing in multivariate analysis (62H15)

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