Fractal Scaling of Population Counts Over Time Spans

Publication date: 18 June 2018

Abstract: Attributes which are infrequently expressed in a population can require weeks or months of counting to reach statistical significance. But replacement in a stable population increases long-term counts to a degree determined by the probability distribution of lifetimes. If the lifetimes are in a Pareto distribution with shape factor

1 - r

between 0 and 1, then the expected counts for a stable population are proportional to time raised to the

r

power. Thus

r

is the fractal dimension of counts versus time for this population. Furthermore, the counts from a series of consecutive measurement intervals can be combined using the

L^{p}

-norm where

p = 1 / r

to approximate the population count over the combined time span. Data from digital advertising support these assertions and find that fractal scaling is useful for early estimates of reach, and that the largest reachable fraction of an audience over a long time span is about

1 - r

.

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