Black-Scholes-Merton Option Pricing Revisited: Did we Find a Fatal Flaw?

Publication date: 9 January 2022

Abstract: The option pricing formula of Black and Scholes (1973) hinges on the continuous-time self-financing condition, which is a special case of the continuous-time budget equation of Merton (1971). The self-financing condition is believed to formalize the economic concept of portfolio rebalancing without inflows or outflows of external funds, but was never formally derived in continuous time. As a much bigger issue, however, we discover a timing mistake in the model of Merton (1971) and show that his self-financing condition is misspecified both in discrete and continuous time. Our results invalidate seminal contributions to the literature, including the budget equation of Merton (1971), the option pricing formula of Black and Scholes (1973), the continuous trading model of Harrison and Pliska (1981), and the binomial option pricing model of Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979). We also show that Black and Scholes (1973) and Harrison and Pliska (1981) implicitly assumed their replication result.

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Derivative securities (option pricing, hedging, etc.) (91G20) Stochastic processes (60G99) Portfolio theory (91G10)

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