Unsupervised Discovery of Extreme Weather Events Using Universal Representations of Emergent Organization

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Publication date: 25 April 2023

Abstract: Nonlinearly interacting system components often introduce instabilities that generate phenomena with new properties and at different space-time scales than the components. This is known as spontaneous self-organization and is ubiquitous in systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. We introduce a theoretically-grounded framework for emergent organization that, via data-driven algorithms, is constructive in practice. Its building blocks are spacetime lightcones that capture how information propagates across a system through local interactions. We show that predictive equivalence classes of lightcones, local causal states, capture organized behaviors and coherent structures in complex spatiotemporal systems. Using our unsupervised physics-informed machine learning algorithm and a high-performance computing implementation, we demonstrate the applicability of the local causal states for real-world domain science problems. We show that the local causal states capture vortices and their power-law decay behavior in two-dimensional turbulence. We then show that known (hurricanes and atmospheric rivers) and novel extreme weather events can be identified on a pixel-level basis and tracked through time in high-resolution climate data.

Has companion code repository: https://github.com/adamrupe/emergent-organization

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