Fractional model of COVID--19 with pathogens as shedding effects

Faïçal Ndaïrou, Leo Lahti, Moein Khalighi

Publication date: 26 May 2023

Abstract: To develop effective strategies for controlling the spread of the virus and potential future outbreaks, a deep understanding of disease transmission dynamics is crucial. This study proposes a modification to existing mathematical models used to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with environmental pathogens, incorporating a variable population, and employing incommensurate fractional order derivatives in ordinary differential equations. Our analysis accurately computes the basic reproduction number and demonstrates the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point. Numerical simulations fitted to real data from South Africa show the efficacy of our proposed model, with fractional models enhancing flexibility. We also provide reliable values for initial conditions, model parameters, and order derivatives, and examine the sensitivity of model parameters. Our study provides valuable insights into COVID-19 transmission dynamics and has the potential to inform the development of effective control measures and prevention strategies.

Has companion code repository: https://github.com/moeinkh88/covid_shedding

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