Projecting age-structured populations in a random environment
type: Item
instance of: scholarly article
title: Projecting age-structured populations in a random environment
zbMATH Open document ID: 0637.92016
DOI: 10.1016/0025-5564(88)90043-0
author: Charles J. Mode
author: Terry Root
published in: Mathematical Biosciences
publication date: 1988-01-01T00:00:00Z
review text: An environmental process was characterized by a stationary first order autoregressive process with Gaussian noise. This process was then linked to survivorship and reproductive success by logistic transformations to construct a stochastic population process, related to generalized age- dependent branching processes, for projecting age-structured populations in a random environment. Unexpectedly large fluctuations among projections of conditional mean total population size, given different realizations of the environmental process, were observed, particularly when the environmental process had a strictly positive autocorrelation function. These large fluctuations led to summarizing the results of 100 replications of projecting conditional mean total population size, given the environmental process, for 100 epochs in terms of extreme value statistics rather than the more conventional means and variances. Qualitative comparisons with fluctuations in abundance of some species of birds suggested that some choices of parameter values for the environmental process led to plausible models for the evolution of selected bird populations.
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 92D25
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 65C20
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 65C05
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 60J85
zbMATH DE Number: 4039698
zbMATH Keywords: environmental process
zbMATH Keywords: stationary first order autoregressive process with Gaussian noise
zbMATH Keywords: survivorship
zbMATH Keywords: reproductive success
zbMATH Keywords: logistic transformations
zbMATH Keywords: age-dependent branching processes
zbMATH Keywords: projecting age- structured populations
zbMATH Keywords: random environment
zbMATH Keywords: conditional mean total population size
zbMATH Keywords: extreme value statistics
MaRDI profile type: Publication
full work available at URL: 0025-5564(88)90043-0
OpenAlex ID: W2056396835
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description: scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4039698