Business cycle theory. A survey of methods and concepts.
This book is meant to be a text on business cycle theory. It presents in some details a development of theoretical business cycle modelling and the necessary mathematical methods. There is no systematic discussion of empirical evidence, though chapter 1 contains a review on the measurement of business cycles and various indicators that have been used. The other omission is that econometric analysis and models of other business cycle theories are not covered. The organization of the book is based on methodological aspects of business cycle modelling, and this is reflected in the chapter headings. Chapter 2 is devoted to shock-dependent models, and it covers classical material, including the variants of the multiplier-accelerator models, inventory models, floors and ceilings in such models, and the Kalecki mixed difference-differential equation model. Chapter 3 continues the discussion of shock-dependent theories. The main topics are political business cycle theories, stochastic models of Frisch and others, and the rational expectations approach to business cycles. The new game-theoretic literature on political and policy aspects is not covered at all. Chapter 4 considers the shock-independent approach to business cycle modelling. It starts from the classic models of Goodwin, Kaldor and others. The modern literature is discussed in accordance with the methods that have been used. The topics are Poincaré-Bendixson theorem, predator-prey modelling, models based on Lienard-van der Pol equations, and the use of the Hopf bifurcation. The topic of chapter 5 is the new complex dynamic modelling and its use in business cycle theory. The use of both chaos theory methods and catastrophe theory are discussed, with illustrations to economic models.
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 44098