Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of dysentery diarrhea epidemic model
type: Item
instance of: scholarly article
title: Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis of dysentery diarrhea epidemic model
zbMATH Open document ID: 1442.92154
DOI: 10.1155/2019/8465747
author: Hailay Weldegiorgis Berhe
author: O. D. Makinde
author: David Mwangi Theuri
published in: Journal of Applied Mathematics
publication date: 2019-05-07T00:00:00Z
review text: Summary: In this paper, dysentery diarrhea deterministic compartmental model is proposed. The local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained using the stability theory of differential equations. Numerical simulation of the system shows that the backward bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium exists for \(R_0 >1\). The system is formulated as a standard nonlinear least squares problem to estimate the parameters. The estimated reproduction number, based on the dysentery diarrhea disease data for Ethiopia in 2017, is \(R_0 = 1.1208\). This suggests that elimination of the dysentery disease from Ethiopia is not practical. A graphical method is used to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the importance of model parameters in the disease dynamics. It is found out that the reproduction number is the most sensitive to the effective transmission rate of dysentery diarrhea \((\beta_h)\). It is also demonstrated that control of the effective transmission rate is essential to stop the spreading of the disease.
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 92D30
zbMATH DE Number: 7051376
MaRDI profile type: Publication
full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/8465747
OpenAlex ID: W2913268153
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description: scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7051376