The effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of the plague disease
type: Item
instance of: scholarly article
title: The effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of the plague disease
zbMATH Open document ID: 1403.92304
DOI: 10.1155/2017/5058085
author: Rigobert C. Ngeleja
author: Livingstone S. Luboobi
author: Yaw Nkansah-Gyekye
published in: International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences
publication date: 2018-05-25T00:00:00Z
review text: Summary: Plague is a historic disease which is also known to be the most devastating disease that ever occurred in human history, caused by gram-negative bacteria known as \textit{Yersinia pestis}. The disease is mostly affected by variations of weather conditions as it disturbs the normal behavior of main plague disease transmission agents, namely, human beings, rodents, fleas, and pathogens, in the environment. This in turn changes the way they interact with each other and ultimately leads to a periodic transmission of plague disease. In this paper, we formulate a periodic epidemic model system by incorporating seasonal transmission rate in order to study the effect of seasonal weather variation on the dynamics of plague disease. We compute the basic reproduction number of a proposed model. We then use numerical simulation to illustrate the effect of different weather dependent parameters on the basic reproduction number. We are able to deduce that infection rate, progression rates from primary forms of plague disease to more severe forms of plague disease, and the infectious flea abundance affect, to a large extent, the number of bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague infective agents. We recommend that it is more reasonable to consider these factors that have been shown to have a significant effect on \(R_T\) for effective control strategies.
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 92D30
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 92D40
zbMATH DE Number: 6873346
zbMATH Keywords: plague disease dynamics
zbMATH Keywords: seasonal weather variation
zbMATH Keywords: periodic epidemic model
MaRDI profile type: Publication
full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/5058085
OpenAlex ID: W2743513861
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description: scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6873346