Modeling the effects of spatial heterogeneity and seasonality on Guinea worm disease transmission
type: Item
instance of: scholarly article
title: Modeling the effects of spatial heterogeneity and seasonality on Guinea worm disease transmission
zbMATH Open document ID: 1437.92127
DOI: 10.1155/2018/5084687
author: Anthony A. E. Losio
author: Steady Mushayabasa
published in: Journal of Applied Mathematics
publication date: 2019-01-14T00:00:00Z
review text: Summary: Guinea worm disease is one of the neglected tropical diseases that is on the verge of elimination. Currently the disease is endemic in four countries, namely, Ethiopia, Mali, Chad, and South Sudan. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate factors and limited access to safe drinking water have a significant impact on transmission and control of Guinea worm disease. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics of Guinea worm disease in South Sudan. The model incorporates seasonal variations, educational campaigns, and spatial heterogeneity. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the model have been carried out. Utilizing Guinea worm disease surveillance data of South Sudan (2007--2013) we estimate the model parameters. Meanwhile, we perform an optimal control study to evaluate the implications of vector control on long-term Guinea worm infection dynamics. Our results demonstrate that vector control could play a significant role on Guinea worm disease eradication.
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 92D30
zbMATH DE Number: 7000934
MaRDI profile type: Publication
full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/5084687
OpenAlex ID: W2866476432
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description: scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7000934