The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments
type: Item
instance of: scholarly article
title: The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments
zbMATH Open document ID: 0684.62074
DOI: 10.1016/0040-5809(89)90013-0
author: Kenneth G. Manton
author: Eric Stallard
author: Anatoly I. Yashin
published in: Theoretical Population Biology
publication date: 1989-01-01T00:00:00Z
review text: This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for (a) the future values of the physiological variables under the assumption that external factors evolve under a linear stochastic diffusion process, and (b) the cohort survival functions and cohort life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The model implies that a major component of uncertainty in forecasts of the physiological characteristics of a closed cohort is due to differential rates of survival associated with different realizations of the external process.
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 62P10
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 62M20
zbMATH DE Number: 4121262
zbMATH Keywords: uncertainty in human mortality
zbMATH Keywords: influential exogenous processes
zbMATH Keywords: stochasticity
zbMATH Keywords: physiological aging processes
zbMATH Keywords: physiological state
zbMATH Keywords: Variance expressions
zbMATH Keywords: linear stochastic diffusion process
zbMATH Keywords: cohort survival functions
zbMATH Keywords: cohort life expectancies
Wikidata QID: Q41236686
MaRDI profile type: Publication
full work available at URL: 0040-5809(89)90013-0
OpenAlex ID: W2073877542
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description: scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4121262