Risk of infectious disease outbreaks by imported cases with application to the European Football Championship 2012
type: Item
instance of: scholarly article
title: Risk of infectious disease outbreaks by imported cases with application to the European Football Championship 2012
zbMATH Open document ID: 1372.60127
DOI: 10.1155/2013/576381
author: Attila Dénes
author: Peter Kevei
author: Hiroshi Nishiura
author: Gergely Röst
published in: International Journal of Stochastic Analysis
publication date: 2013-05-31T00:00:00Z
review text: Summary: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control called the attention in March 2012 to the risk of measles in Ukraine among visitors to the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship. Large populations of supporters travelled to various locations in Poland and Ukraine, depending on the schedule of Euro 2012 and the outcome of the games, possibly carrying the disease from one location to another. In the present study, we propose a novel two-phase multitype branching process model with immigration to describe the risk of a major epidemic in connection with large-scale sports-related mass gathering events. By analytic means, we calculate the expected number and the variance of imported cases and the probability of a major epidemic caused by the imported cases in their home country. Applying our model to the case study of Euro 2012 we demonstrate that the results of the football games can be highly influential to the risk of measles outbreaks in the home countries of supporters. To prevent imported epidemics, it should be emphasized that vaccinating travellers would most efficiently reduce the risk of epidemic, while requiring the minimum doses of vaccines as compared to other vaccination strategies. Our theoretical framework can be applied to other future sport tournaments too.
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 60J85
zbMATH DE Number: 6168849
Wikidata QID: Q56880185
MaRDI profile type: Publication
full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/576381
OpenAlex ID: W2035543590
cites work: Stochastic epidemic models: a survey
cites work: The multi-type Galton-Watson process with immigration
description: scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6168849