Propensities and conditional probabilities
type: Item
instance of: scholarly article
title: Propensities and conditional probabilities
zbMATH Open document ID: 1255.00004
author: Isabelle Drouet
published in: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
publication date: 2011-06-08T00:00:00Z
review text: This article deals with the objection that Paul Humphreys raised in 1985 against the propensity interpretation of probability, going back to Pierce and Popper. ``Humphreys' paradox'' goes basically as follows: Since propensities reflect asymmetric causal tendencies in time, they cannot obey Kolomogorov's probability calculus, since the latter one implies the Bayes' fomula, which allows to invert conditional probabilities in a non-trival sense. In this article the author provides an updated review on existing solutions, and concludes that none of them is completely satisfactory in view of Humphreys' 2004 rejoinder. Eventually she formulates and discusses a original, positive solution.
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 00A30
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 60A05
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 60-03
Mathematics Subject Classification ID: 60-02
zbMATH DE Number: 5905166
zbMATH Keywords: conditionalization
zbMATH Keywords: propensity
zbMATH Keywords: Humphreys' paradox
reviewed by: Michael Högele
MaRDI profile type: Publication
full work available at URL: j.ijar.2009.06.009
OpenAlex ID: W1998828938
cites work: Propensities and probabilities
cites work: Q3325694
cites work: Humphreys's paradox and the interpretation of inverse conditional propensities
cites work: Q5483308
cites work: Q3246162
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cites work: Conditionalization and observation
DOI: 10.1016/J.IJAR.2009.06.009
description: scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5905166