A probability model of the waiting time distribution between consecutive conceptions based on the data of live births (Q1092583)

Attempt has been made in this paper to obtain probability models describing the distribution of the waiting time from marriage to first conception and from first to second conception. The technique of Palm probability has been used to obtain the conditional probability of having a second conception given that the first has occurred at some time origin. Application of the model providing estimates of the monthly probability of conception from marriage to first order has been illustrated using the data pertaining to the interlive birth intervals given in Nepal Fertility Survey (1976). The mean waiting time for the second order of conception has also been estimated.