Towards long-term prediction (Q1961655)

This paper describes a simple method of obtaining longer-term predictions from a nonlinear time-series under the assumption that a reasonably good short-term predictor is known. The usefulness of the technique is that it eliminates, to some extent, the systematic errors of the iterated short-term predictor. The authors consider systems with observational and dynamical noise and analyze a number of artificial and experimental systems obtaining consistent results.